Hi Ranty Nation!  Ranty McRantyson har agin!

Well, we dun waved gudbye to #45 an welcomed in #46, Pres Joe Biden.  Now Pres Biden has a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus bill, he, an the Democrats in the US Congress’re tryin to git passed fur the “We, the People”.  Cuz of that, ah thunk Pres Biden dun be startin purty gud, though ah’d like it better if’n he’d’ve gone bigger cuz a lot of Mericans’re hurtin right now.  The question is, Biden: #46FDRorHoover?

Now many of y’all probly thunk ah’ll jus give Pres Biden a pass on most thangs cuz Pres Trump wuz so durned bad.  Well, that jus depends on Pres Biden.

Y’see, the way ah figure it, Pres Biden’s furst 100 days’re gonna set the tone fur his Presidency.  Mah question is:  “Is Pres Biden gonna be more like a Pres FDR or more like a Pres Hoover?”  Ah ran cross this video a couple months ago an ah’ve bin ponderin it ever since he wuz lected!

Past, Present, an Future

This ain’t me jus doin sum idle wunderin.  Ah’ve bin thunkin on this since ah herd tell that then VP Biden wanted to be a Roosevelt style President (FDR, not Teddy).  So let’s take a look at the past, present, an future of the predicament of whut we’all’re in an whar it might go.

Past

IMO, we’all, as a nation’ve got us some challengin times ahead cuz of whut’s happened over the last year or so.  Last year, we dun lost about 30% of the nation’s GDP.  Frum whut ah remember frum mah macro economics (means “big picture type economics”) class, an economy jus ain’t likely to take a hit that size an there be no effect.  Ah thunk it’s kinda like watchin a quarterback take a late hit an git his “bell rung”.  An when he has trouble tryin to find the huddle an say, “Ah, he’s fine, he’ll shake it off!”  Now maybe he will, but most likely he won’t… at least not fur that game!

Small Businesses

The problem we got here is the country dun took a double whammy!

Furst, we’all got hit by COVID-19 (“coronavirus”, SARS-CoV-2, CV19, etc.) an then (cuz of COVID-19), more folks lost they’s jobs than at any other time since the Great Depression.  Folks in the know estimate that the US, permanent-like, lost 25% of the nations small businesses cuz of COVID-19.  Those businesses ain’t comin back.

Others might show up, given nuff time, but that 25% ain’t.  That’s a part of our country’s history that’s jus gone an ah thunk we, as a country, shud do more than jus offer “hopes an prayers”.  But ah’ll talk bout exactly whut ah thunk shud be dun below.

Second, the economy took a huge hit an we gotta pay fur it at sum point.  Last year, durin the furst peak, the gross domestic product took bout 1/3 hit.  That dun be bout 1/3 of the economy lost.  OUCH!  That’s gotta leave a mark!

We, The People

Cuz of this loss of jobs an businesses, folk’re scared an not really wantin to spend money… an folk spendin money is whut drives the economy, NOT the stock market.  Sayin that cuz the stock market is doin gud, the economy is doin gud too jus ain’t right.  It’s like this har quote frum “The Witcher” book series:

“You mistook the stars reflected in a pond at night, for those in the sky.”  — Andrzej Sapkowski, Czas pogardy

Basically, it means that the reflection ain’t whut you think it is…  That the stock market is the reflection an walkin toward it is gonna put you in the deep end of the pond.  The stock market prices (the reflection) usedta be related to how well the economy (the sky) wuz doin, but it shure ain’t no more.

Present

Right now, we’all’ve got us one heck of an economic COVID-19 hangover goin on.  On top of that, COVID-19’s still kickin our butts!  Folk’re STILL not wearin masks an such (y’all know, the 4Ws) an everone’s hopin that thar COVID-19 vaccine’ll save the day.  Problem is, most of the same folk who won’t wear masks also say they’s ain’t gonna git the vaccine shots.  An theys other’s who do wear masks’re sayin the same thang!

On top of that, they’s still many folk who’re not wantin to spend they’s money cuz they’all jus ain’t shure when they’s gonna git a job.  On top of that, they’s worried if’n they’s gonna have a job in the future.  This makes fur economical problems when folk don’t spend they’s money:

1. That spendin ain’t increasin the economy,
2. Businesses don’t want to hire folk cuz they ain’t got enuf business,
3. Folk don’t git jobs or they’s jobs disappear,
4. Then… well, ah thunk y’all git the idea.

Future

The fact is the US jus don’t stand much of a chance of recoverin so long as we’all’ve got us a COVID-19 problem! So the furst thang that hasta be dun is to git COVID-19 unner control.  The easiest thang to do is look around the wurld an see if’n there be anywhere we’all can learn a lesson or two bout controllin COVID-19.

How Other Countries’re Fixin COVID-19

India (the country) has bout 4 times the population of the US, but only a small fraction of the healthcare system, but ALSO a small fraction of the number of cases an they’s case counts’re droppin fast.  So they’s gotta be doin sumthin right, amahright?

The Mystery Of India’s Plummeting COVID-19 Cases

Well, accordin to the above article, the main reason why they’s bin so successful is cuz they’all’ve bin wearin masks!  If nuttin else, this dun shows:

1. Wearin masks stops viruses.
2. Wearin masks stops COVID-19 (and the flu).

Fixin the Problem

Anyhoo, the point to all this “Future” jawin is that the furst step in fixin the US economy is to control COVID-19.  Yes, gettin 80%+ of the US population vaccinated is the long-term solution fur COVID-19, but mask wearin is the best, short-term solution to the COVID-19 problem.

So, the long an short of it is that til we’all git COVID-19 unner control, we ain’t gonna be able to fix the economy.

Sum “Stimulatin” Ideas

Once we’all git COVID-19 unner control, then we’all can get around to the necessary steps to do sum fixin of the economy.

Sum ideas ah’ve hurd include the followin:  (many’re “tried an tested” methods fur economic emergencies)

1. Jobs programs (a “New Deal”, aka “The Green New Deal”, “Infrastructure Spending”, etc.)
2. Worker unemployment compensation
3. Financial assistance fur folks an small businesses

Ah’m not gonna discuss these right now cuz they each deserve they’s own talk, but that’s a talk fur anutter time.

FDR vs Hoover

There dun be A LOT of similarities tween the 2020 and 2021 Presidencies of Pres Trump (45) an Pres Biden (46) an those of Pres Hoover and Pres FDR, respectively.  But to unnerstand this better, we’all’re gonna have to pay sum attention to history… US history of bout 90 years ago.

The Great Depression

Bout 90 years ago, we had “The Great Depression”.  The Great Depression is generally thunked to have started wit the Wall Street Crash of 1929.  While most folk thunk it started on “Black Friday” (no, not the one the day after Thanksgivin), it really started the day befur… on Black Thursday an continued thru to the followin “Black Tuesday”.  Over those four tradin days (Thursday, Friday, Monday, an Tuesday), the Dow Jones lost over 1/3 of its value an tons of (mostly rich) folk lost a lotta money.  While the Dow Jones recovered a bit durin November 1929, it took til 1954 befur the Dow Jones reached a new high over the previous 1929 high!  That’s right, it took bout 25 years befur the Dow Jones wuz able to recover.

The Great Depression is generally thunked to have run frum bout 1929 to 1939, tho, like ah said above, the Dow didn’t recover fur bout 15 more years.  By the end of 1932, the Dow Jones had dropped frum a high of bout 380 (September 1929) to a low of bout 47 (July 1932)!

Wall Street Crash of 1929
The Great Depression
Chart of Dow Jones Fall Between 1929 an 1932

  Pres Hoover

Pres Herbert Clark Hoover wuz inaugurated on March 4, 1929 an left office on March 4, 1933.  Now y’all might be furgiven fur thunkin that ol Pres Hoover dun jus bin unlucky an the market jus happened to have crashed while he wuz President.  An, in part, y’all’d be right… they wuz sum problems goin on, like a stock bubble where folks jus didn’t believe the market could fall!

Unfurtunately, that ain’t the whole story.  If’n the market had bin allowed to go on it’s merry way, the crash probly wudn’t have bin as bad, cuz the market wudn’t have bin so durned high.  Whut’s the old sayin, “The bigger they be, the harder they dun fall”?  Well, that wuz shurely true with that market.

The problem wuz that ol Pres Hoover wuz a hard-core fiscal conservative who didn’t believe that the federal guvmint shud step in an help, but that wuz whut the states shud do.  He, like so many of his species wuz a true believer an dun followed they’s game plan to a “T”.

Problem wuz the states didn’t have the resources to help much.  Cuz of that, they didn’t spend nuff money fur regular folk to kickstart the economy so as it’d git goin agin.  To make matters wurse, Pres Hoover started Congress goin to add tariffs to imported farm goods so as to help the farmers.  Problem is that the Republican controlled Congress got carried away an put tariffs on bout all imports, costin regular folk even more fur stuff.  Pres Hoover thunked that wuz too much, but didn’t want to make the Republicans look bad by doin a veto on that bill.

The Bottom Line (Hoover Edition)

Hoover and the Republicans choked the economy rather than givin it a breath of fresh air to git goin agin.  An this resulted in the wurst economic crisis our nation has seen to date.  Har’s a look at whut the markets looked like durin Pres Hoover’s administration:

Wikipedia – Herbert Hoover (The Great Depression)

  Pres Roosevelt (FDR)

Pres Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) took office on March 4, 1933 after winnin the election in whut we’d call a landslide wit 57% of the popular vote an won all but 6 states in the electoral college votin wit a 472 to 59 win.  As y’all can see, regular folk jus weren’t none too happy wit Hoover’s economical plannin after the Wall Street Crash an the beginnin of The Great Depression!

So, whut wuz differnt tween Pres FDR an Pres Hoover anyhoo?  Well, it basically boiled down to the approach.  Pres Hoover dun thought the resource strapped States shud/cud handle the problem.  On the other hand, Pres FDR dun realized the States jus didn’t have the resources to pull the country out of The Great Depression.  He thunk the federal guvmint wuz the right place to handle this national crisis.  An he wuz right!

The New Deal

Pres FDR started many programs that got both money an jobs to the Merican people an got us outta The Great Depression. Har’s a short list of the programs he used to git the country outta The Great Depression:

The First 100 Days

1. The Economy Act (budget policy)
2. The Emergency Banking Act (banking policy)
3. The Glass-Steagall Act (banking an stock market regulation)
4. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC, bank account insurance)
5. Dropped the gold standard (fiscal policy)
6. Created the Security and Exchange Commission (market oversight)
7. Repealed prohibition (re-legalized alcohol… much like marijuana?)
8. Public Works Administration (infrastructure job creation)
9. Many farm an rural programs (supporting farmers and food availability)

Walter Lippman said of whut Pres FDR dun:

“At the end of February [1933] we were a congeries [assemblage or heap] of disorderly panic-stricken mobs and factions. In the hundred days from March to June we became again an organized nation confident of our power to provide for our own security and to control our own destiny.” — Wikipedia

The Second New Deal

1. The Social Security Administration (guaranteed retirement)
2. The National Labor Relations Act (protecting wurker rights to unionize)
3. The Fair Labor Standards Act (44 hour work week, minimum wage, no child labor, an such)
4. Works Progress Administration (WPA: built hospitals, schools, roads/(650,000 miles), bridges, tunnels, parks, playgrounds, public buildings, etc.)
5. Raised taxes on the very rich (up to 79% over $5 million ($132 million in today’s dollars), top rate only affected one person, John D. Rockefeller)
6. US Housing Authority (part of the Housing Act of 1937)
7. US Dept of the Interior (part of the Housing Act of 1937)

World War II

Pres FDR also guided the US through WWII.  At furst he didn’t want to git involved.  In fact, he even made not gittin involved in the World War a campaign promise.  However, after the attacks on Pearl Harbor an U-boats sinkin Merican ships in the Atlantic, he didn’t have a choice.

Even wit the war goin on Pres FDR wuz able to git even more good stuff dun fur “We, the People”.  While handlin WWII, he also did these thangs:

• Wartime Welfare Projects
  – The Community Facilities Act of 1940 (Helped communities with a bunch of new folk movin in to help defense projects for war)
  – Coal Mines Inspection and Investigation Act of 1941 (Drastically reduced mining deaths)
  – The Servicemen’s Dependents Allowance Act of 1942 (Helped service families with healthcare/childcare/pensions)
  – The Emergency Maternity and Infant Care Program (Helped with newborn hospital expenses, dramatically reduced infant mortality
  nationwide)
  – Disabled Veterans Rehabilitation Act of 1943 (Veterans medical rehabilitation)
  – Servicemen’s Readjustment Act of 1944 (The G.I. Bill, provided fur edumacational opportunities fur active an veteran service members)

A True “Man of the People”

As y’all can see, Pres FDR dun a whole buncha gud fur the Merican people while he wuz in office.  Ah thunk the best thang bout him wuz that he kept tryin to do gud fur the “common man” an didn’t toady up to the rich.

In fact, Pres FDR dun did such a gud job that he wuz lected President FOUR times in a row.  He probably wudda bin lected agin, but he died in office in 1945.  Pres FDR wuz so popular fur whut he dun fur regular folk, that he scared the bejesus outta them non-Democratic party folk.  After he died Congress passed the term limit of two terms or 10 total years fur the President.  Ah’ll bet y’all noticed they didn’t put no term limits on theyselves!

The Bottom Line (FDR Edition)

Pres FDR brought the country out of a depression that wuz both financial an emotional.  He gave the country hope an the financial support it needed when folk were hurtin.  Har’s a chart y’all can look at to see the differnce tween Pres Hoover an Pres FDR:

Well, that’s dun be it fur this har Part 1 of this two part talk bout whether Pres Biden’s gonna be like Pres FDR or Pres Hoover.  Part 2 will be comin in a couple days, so hang on an leave a comment below.

Ranty McRantyson signin off!