Hi Ranty Nation!  Ranty McRantyson har agin!

Sorry, y’all, but ah jus cudn’t cut this talk down more’n it is.  It’s a bit of a read, but ah thunk y’all git sum gud infurmation frum it!  Har we go about the COVID-19 vaccine…

In mah previous talk, Part A: The Flu, ah showed how the flu git folk sick an the differnce tween folks who dun got the flu vaccine and them folk who didn’t.  In this Part B: COVID-19, ah’m gonna talk bout whut makes COVID-19 differnt frum, an kind of like, the flu.

Disclaimer

While ah dun put sum mathimacation in this har talk, it’s jus to show how thangs compare cuz the actual mathimacation dun be really complicated an ah jus tried to simplify it to git the idea across by rough comparisons.

They’s a buncha names that folks use to refer to the same thang, but, technical-like they ain’t all really the same.  The coronavirus that be causin so many problems this year is called SARS-CoV-2.  That dun stand fur SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) CoronaVirus number 2.  They medical folk call it this cuz the first SARS virus was called SARS-CoV.  An since this one dun be real similar-like, they called it SARS-CoV-2.  Git it?

They’s also a kinda related coronavirus that’s called MERS (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome) an, as y’all can probly guess, it started in the Middle East.  It was clamped down on purty quick, mostly cuz it didn’t spread too fast an basically dies off befur infectin too many folk.  Though it did git them folk that got it purty sick.

So SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus an they’s hundreds of them coronaviruses.  But not all of them coronaviruses git humans purty sick.

SARS-CoV-2 an COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 causes whut is called COVID-19.  COVID-19 stands fur COronaVIrus Disease, found in 2019 an that gits the “19” on the end.  The “Disease” part describes all the symptoms/damage that SARS-CoV-2 causes.  Fur sum folk, they’s hardly git any symptoms/damage, if’n they’s git any at all.  Fur other folk, they’s might be hospitalized, end up in the ICU, or, heaven furbid, might even die.

To keep thangs simple, ah’m jus gonna use “COVID-19” stead of them other names.

Whut Bout the COVID-19 Vaccines?

As of the time ah’m writin this har talk, there be bout 6 differnt vaccines that’re either goin thru or dun got thru “Phase 3” testin.  But to put sum perspective on it, why don’t we’all talk a bit bout whut the testin “Phases” (fur new) vaccines gotta go thru to git FDA approved an fur us to git them?  Wit established vaccines like the “seasonal flu” (ah’ll jus call it the “flu”) whut dun bin round fur years an years, they only have to basically do the Phase III testin, so as they can git the vaccine out fur the new flu season.

Phase I

This har phase of vaccine testin is the beginnin.  The vaccine makers begin testin they’all’s new vaccine on small groups of folk.

It starts off wit whut they’all call the “Exploratory stage” stage where they pick the most promisin vaccine based on stuff like animal testin and such.  This har stage usually takes tween 1 an 2 years.

Then they move to the “Pre-clinical stage” in whut they’s start givin the vaccine to a few folk (60-80 or so) to make sure it dun wurk the way they expect.  They’s checkin to make shure it be safe (they’s no obvious problem the vaccine dun cause) an that it actually wurks by gittin y’all’s immune system all fired up an fightin the vaccine.

To be clear on this last part, it ain’t like they go round testin it by exposin them to SARS-CoV-2.  Whut they’s lookin fur is the body producin the anti-bodies, t-cells, etc. that dun fight COVID-19, jus like them folk who’ve got COVID-19 on they’s own.

Phase II

This har phase is whar them medical and scientifical folk add in even more regular folk to test the vaccine.  They’s gonna git a bigger group of folk fur to make shure they dun got a gud bunch that’re more like the whole population of the US an make sure they git nuff of them folk wit stuff like all ages, other health problems, etc.  This phase probly have frum a couple hundred up to bout 1,000 folk in it.

Phase III

This har be the last of the “testin” phases.  The vaccine be given to thousands, even tens of thousands of folk to make sure it dun wurk wit all kinds of folk and that no unexpected problems pop up.  Now this don’t mean they’s vaccine might not have problems.  It cud.  Thang is, they’s only so much testin y’all can do to be shure it ain’t gonna have a problem.  If’n no problems show up wit tens of thousands of folk gittin the vaccine, then they’s figure that it probly be safe.

As part of this Phase III, after they’all git all they’s infurmation together, they’s take it to the FDA (US Food and Drug Administration) fur them to double check the vaccine to make sure it both wurks an is safe!  If’n the FDA dun decide that this vaccine wurks an is as safe as can be expected witout everone gittin the vaccine, they’s give the vaccine maker the OK to go ahead an make the vaccine and send it out fur folk to git vaccinated.

Phase IV

Now that the vaccine is bein sent all over the country (an maybe even the wurld), the vaccine folk (an the FDA) dun need to keep checkin to make shure the vaccine is still wurkin like spected (that it wurks fur a long time, ain’t no long term problems pop up, no groups of folk react badly or not at all, etc.).  So they’s do long-term studies to make shure they’s ain’t nuttin to wurry bout.

Many vaccines undergo Phase IV’s formal, ongoing studies after the vaccine is approved and licensed.

— CDC.gov: Vaccine Testing and the Approval Process

— JNJ.com: The 5 Stages of COVID-19 Vaccine Development: What You Need to Know About How a Clinical Trial Works

How the Testin’s Dun

Alls these test dun need to be dun in a special way fur it to be gud.  If’n y’all read my talk bout, “Why ‘Biometrics’ Ain’t Such a Gud Idea… (Part 2)“, y’all’ll unnerstand why it be important fur these all the testin in these phases be dun wit randomly selected testin.  In other wurds, they’s test folk need to be randomly picked, like numbers in a bingo parlor, cept the pickin dun be dun by a compooter.

They’s also have to do whut is called “double blind” testin.  “Double blind” be a type of random pickin, cept it wurks a bit differnt than fur pickin the folk who’ll git to “git” the vaccine shot.  Wit double blind testin, bout 1/2 the folks git the real vaccine an the other 1/2 git a “placebo” (not the vaccine, usually saline (sterilized salt water)).  Neither the person givin the shot or the person gittin the shot know if’n the shot actually have the vaccine or they’s jus gittin some saline solution.

The reason fur the double blind testin is so that the person givin the shot can’t “stack the deck” so as they’s friends git the vaccine or only give it to folk they’s thunk’ll not git sick/as sick.  Also, the person gittin the shot won’t know so they’s won’t behave differntly if’n they’s git the vaccine than if’n they’s wasn’t.

While it might seem kinda unnecessary, when lives’re on the line, past medical testin history has dun shown that thisun be the best an safest way fur a safe vaccine to be tested.

How’s the Future Lookin Right Now Fur COVID-19?

Ah thunk we’all shud talk bout whut’s goin on wit COVID-19 an whut the future’ll look like an compare it to the flu.

Y’see, the flu don’t have as many post-sickness chronic (long-term) health problems like whut we’all’re seein wit COVID-19. These har long-term problem include lung problems, heart problems, weakness, headaches, an more.  An, course, folk’ll probly have sum more problems we ain’t even seen yet.  — MayoClinic.com: COVID-19 (coronavirus): Long-term effects

So as we’ll can git a handle on all whut dun be goin on wit COVID-19, we’all probly oughtta look at this info.

1. The first KNOWN US COVD-19 death was on Feb 6th of this year, in Washington state.
2. In the followin almost 10 months, the US has had over 285,000 COVID-19 deaths.
3. If’n thangs keep gong like they is, we’all’re lookin at bout  ~340,000+ deaths by about Feb 1, 2021, assumin thangs don’t git no wurse (an they’s gonna git wurse)!  (Note: (285,000 / 10 = 28,500 deaths per month x 2 = 57,000 deaths in two more months; 285,000 + 57,000 = ~340,000 deaths)

The US dun bin averagin bout 33,000 per month, fur the last 6 months, an 36,000 in November alone(!), an it dun be gittin wurse an wurse as folk’re stayin inside cuz of winter weather.  December’s lookin to hit 60,000-90,000 folk dyin!  An unless folk decide to stay at home fur Christmas, January’ll probly be wurse.

An Pres Trump still ain’t doin nuthin to slow the spread!  Ah don’t unnerstand how anyone can support this man fur President.  IMO, he dun be directly responsible fur more Merican deaths than any other Merican in history!

They’s a Lotta Folk Who’re In the Hospital!

Y’all need to remember that while there’re bout 285,000 fatalities related to COVID-19, there’ve bin at least twice that many folk who’re in the hospital.  Not only that, but the very high cost to care fur COVID-19 patients averages well over $30,000 per patient.  AN many of those who dun git better still have long-term, after gittin sick, health problems, sumthin that ain’t talked bout much by them news folk.  Course that’s gonna add to the crushin medical debt them folk who survived have to deal wit!

The University of Washington (UW) COVID-19 model (considered to be the best) is saying we might see upward of a total of 400,000 dead by Feb 1, 2021.  By April 1, 2021, the model says we’all might have double the current number of deaths (~540,000).

Whut Bout That COVID-19 Vaccine They’s Talkin Bout on the TeeVee?

If’n y’all remember frum Part A of this har talk series bout COVID-19, no vaccine is purrfect purfect (Durned cats!  Y’all git outta har an quit makin fun of mah accent!).  So ah thunk ah shud go thru the differnces tween the flu vaccine an the likely COVID-19 vaccines.

Ah shud note that mosta the new vaccines fur COVID-19 are usin a new fangled method of creatin vaccines.  It’s called mRNA.

mRNA stands fur “messenger RiboNucleic Acid”.  RNA is a natural part of our cells.  RNA is like the controller of how the cells wurk, whereas DNA (Di-riboNucleic Acid) holds the “blue print” of our entire body.

mRNA is also a natural part of our cells.  Normally, whut it does is pass messages back an forth to differnt parts of the cell.  Wit a mRNA vaccine, they’s inject nuff mRNA pieces fur we’all’s body to tell a certain number of cells to make a protein spike, whut’s like the “spikes” y’all have probly seen on pictures of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.  Har’s a pic:  (the spikes’re them red parts)

 

COVID-19 and the COVID-19 Vaccine

Anyhoo, the COVID-19 vaccine basically wurks bout the same way as the flu vaccine, wit a couple differnces.

1. Like sum other vaccines, the COVID-19 vaccine’ll take gittin two shots, not one like the flu vaccine.  They’s shots’ll be bout 1 month apart.
2. The “effectiveness rate” (how well it wurks to protect y’all), right now, is lookin to be bout 90+%.  This is almost twice as effective as the average flu vaccine an we’all’ll see how important that dun be below.
3. Thar’s still sum question as to how long any of them vaccines’ll last.  There’ve bin sum studies that have made the scientifical folk wunder how long the vaccines’ll wurk (how long they’ll keep yur body fightin off COVID-19).  The studies’ve found that the anti-bodies whut fight COVID-19 have faded away.  An sum folk have gotten COVID-19 twice (tho it ain’t clear if’n they have gotten the same strain twice or two differnt strains).
4. #3 also kinda has sum scientifical folk wunderin if’n the vaccines’ll wurk against the 6 or so major strains of COVID-19 that’re floatin around worldwide.  Time will tell, but there does seem to be sum hope that the vaccines’ll wurk fur most, if not all, strains.
5. The side effects sum folk’ve bin havin are wurse than those found wit the flu vaccine.  Folks have reported havin fatigue, headaches, fever, “brain fog”, etc.  While sum folk also git them side effects frum the flu vaccine, the reports are that its wurse frum the COVID-19 vaccines, if’n y’all are one of the few who have them.  Folks who have dun gotten the side effects say they go away in a day or two.

So, whadda y’all say we do sum mathimacation, jus like we’all dun did fur the flu vaccine?

COVID-19 Wit the Vaccine

Like in Part A, the mathimacation formula for yur chance of gittin a virus is (1 – Effectiveness)² (squared).  The vaccines that’re in Phase III trials, an are probly gonna be the furst the FDA approves as a vaccine, are reported to have an effectiveness of over 90%.  That dun be bout twice as effective as the flu vaccine is in a normal year.

— VeryWellHealth.com: R0 for Determining the Spread of Disease

So let’s do the mathimacation:

1. The chance of one vaccinated purson gittin sick’d be: 1-.90 = .10² = .01 or a 1% chance of gittin sick!  This dun be low nuff that most other folk’d probly not git sick.
2. The chance of vaccinated person givin the flu to another vaccinated person (2 vaccinated folk) dun be 1% * 1% or 0.1%!
3. Fur 3 vaccinated folk to all git sick wud be 1% * 1% * 1% = 0.01%!

COVID-19 Witout the Vaccine

As we dun saw in Part A, folks who don’t git vaccinated really spread the disease: (jus to be safe, we’ll say that only 90% of folks’ll actually git sick, so they’s have a 10% “effectiveness”)

1. 1-.10 = .90² = .81 or 81% chance of gittin the COVID-19 if they be exposed to sumone who dun be sick.
2. If’n they be two unvaccinated folk, then the chance of both them gittin sick be 81% * 81% = 66%
3. Them unvaccinated folk’d have to go thru “13 generations” (.81¹³ = .065 or 6.5%) befur they’d git down to bout that same 6.6% chance of givin COVID-19 to nuther unvaccinated purson!  An 20 generations befur it’d git down to bout 1.5%, whut is close to the COVID-19 vaccine after ONE generation!

Jus to be clear, that’s 1 generation wit the COVID-19 vaccine vs 20 generations witout the vaccine to git to the same point of of bout 1% chance of spread.

COVID-19 Spread Wit an Witout the Vaccine

As y’all can see frum the examples above if’n the COVID-19 vaccine wurks as well as them scientifical folk say, it shud stop the spread of COVID-19 right quick-like!  The impurtant thang har is the R0 (pronounced “R-not”) number.  The R0 number tells the scientifical folk how many folk a sick person can git sick.

To calculate the amount of spread we’all’ll use the following formula:  (R0 * (1-Effectiveness))^(number of generations) or “the R0 to the power of the number of generations of spread”.  The R0 number fur COVID-19 is higher than fur the flu (flu R0 = ~1.5), at ~2.5 (range of estimates for R0 = 2-4).  But to be on the low side, let’s jus say the R0 is the lowest number of R0=2.  That means that each person who ain’t vaccinated dun give 2 folk COVID-19 befur they dun quit spreadin COVID-19.  We’all don’t have nuff info yet, but ah’ll go ahead an say that 10% of folk have a natural immunity to COVID-19 like ah did wit the flu, jus to be on the low side (y’all’ll see whut ah mean below).

Comparin COVID-19 Wit an Witout the Vaccine

Now let’s do the mathimacation fur COVID-19 spread like we dun fur the flu:

1. Wit vaccinated folk y’all’ve “1 generation” befur no more folk’ll be gittin sick frum y’all bein sick.    So that be (2.5 * .1) * 1 = bout .25 total vaccinated folk y’all’d git sick.  (Remember that any number to the power of 1 is that number.)
2. Wit unvaccinated folk y’all’ve bout “13 generations” befur no more folk’ll probly be gittin sick.  So that’ll be (2 * .9)¹³ = bout 2,082 folk one unvaccinated purson’ll git sick!  As y’all can see, diseases spread fast once them R0 numbers start climbin!

This dun mean that not gittin the vaccine means if’n y’all git COVID-19, y’all’ll give COVID-19 to bout 8000 (yes, eight thousand) times more people.  If’n we round that .25 up to 1 (since y’all can’t have .25 people), that still means y’all’ll at least give it to over 2000 times more people than if’n y’all have the vaccine!  (Note:  Y’all’ll give it to 2.5 folk, then THEY give it to 2.5 folk, etc., for 13 total times befure y’all quit gittin folk sick.)

Obviously, if’n the folk y’all got sick run into a group of vaccinated folk, that’ll stop the spread right quick-like!  An that’s whut the idea of “herd immunity” is all about… if’n nuff folk’re vaccinated, then they’all’ll stop the disease frum bein spread to them folk who can’t git the vaccine, fur one reason or nuther.

Them’s vaccines dun be lookin better an better!

— PopSci.com: Just how contagious is COVID-19? This chart puts it in perspective.

The Bottom Line

So we’all dun looked at the flu an COVID-19.  Not only does COVID-19 spread faster an is more deadly, it also can have real bad long-term side effects that we don’t yet fully know.  So ah’d say it dun be safe to say that COVID-19’s wurse than the flu by a country mile!

The problem is we still ain’t dun a close up look at whut the two of them might be like fur folk who dun git both!  Specially since we’all’re headin into “flu season” (whut them scientifical folk call “winter” cuz folk stay inside whar folk can git each other sick easier).

So ah’ll finish up this har talk wit “COVID-19’s Like the Flu, Right? (Part C: The Flu an COVID-19 Together)“.

Til then…

Ranty McRantyson signin off!

PS. Har’s sum more articles y’all might find interestin:

— Rt.live: R_t COVID-19 (How well each state is doing to stop the spread of COVID-19.  The states in green’ve a R0 < 1 (spread is reducing), whereas states in red on the chart’re states that’ve a R0 > 1 (spread is increasing).

— CNN.com: Tracking Covid-19 cases in the US (This graph shows y’all how much COVID-19 is spreadin an whar.  Bigger circles mean more cases.)

— NBCNews.com: What is mRNA? How Pfizer and Moderna tapped new tech to make coronavirus vaccines

— HealthLine.com: What Is R₀? Gauging Contagious Infections