Hi Ranty Nation!   Ranty McRantyson har agin!

A Last Minute Note Bout COVID-19… at the Beginnin of This Har Talk!

Ah haveta put in a quick note har an ah’m sad that ah feel like ah’ve gotta do it.  Over the course of just the last 5 days, since ah wrote the Part B talk, we’all’ve bin seein that the US has bin seein bout a 9/11 wurth of COVID-19 deaths per day!  That’s in the ball park of 15,000 Mericans dyin in jus 5 days.

In mah opinion, the lion’s share of the blame rests squarely on the narrow shoulders of Pres Trump an the Republican Congresscritters who dun bin enablin him to, well, to do jus bout nuthin to slow down the spread of COVID-19 an nuthin to provide “We, the People” the support we need to git this horrid pandemic under control!

Agin, that’s jus mah opinion, but ah’ll be durned if’n ah’m gonna sugar coat whut ah feel to be the truth an not git y’all the infurmation y’all need to stay safe an infurmed bout who dun be responsible fur our nation’s nightmare.  Ah thunk that Pres Elect Joe Biden is, unfurtunately, right on the money when he dun said that winter 2020-2021’s gonna be a “dark winter”.

Political Corruption’s the Problem

Them politicians need to git they’s heads an hearts on straight.  You know, them Republicans who dun be stoppin the relief bills cuz they’s want to protect they’s donors, by stoppin the relief bill cuz they’s want a “git outta jail free card” fur companies by includin a COVID-19 “employees can’t sue they’s employers fur not takin reasonable precautions to keep them safe” amendment in the “relief” bill.  Ah’ll be prayin fur our country an ah hope them Congresscritters’ll see the light an finally help “We, the People” durin the Christmas Season!

Heck, ah’m jus gonna have a rant on this in a day or two, cuz ah’m all fired up bout it an, to (kinda) quote the movie, “Ah’m mad as hell an ah ain’t gonna take it no more!”

On to Part C: Both The Flu an COVID-19 Together

Well, we dun be thru 2 outta the 3 parts of this har talk bout COVID-19 vs the flu.  In Part A: The Flu, ah dun talked bout whut the flu’s like an how it’s vaccine wurk an whut that means fur us wit the flu.  Then in Part B: COVID-19, ah talked bout whut COVID-19’s like an how it’s differnt frum the flu an how it’s vaccine dun wurk an whut that means fur us wit COVID-19.  Finally, in this har part, ah’m gonna talk bout whut might happen wit these 2 viruses together an whut it might mean an whut we’all can do bout it to keep us safe!

Ah suggest y’all read Part A an Part B furst, if’n y’all’re just gittin to readin bout this.  It’ll make whut ah’m sayin below easier to unnerstand.

Disclaimer:  While ah dun put sum mathimacation in this har talk, it’s jus to show how thangs compare cuz the actual mathimacation dun be really complicated an ah jus tried to simplify it to git the idea across by rough comparisons.

COVID-19 an The Flu Together

We dun already established whut’s goin on wit the seasonal flu (ah’ll jus call it the flu like ah dun in the other talks) an COVID-19 by themselfs, in Part A and Part B.  But whut we’all ain’t talked bout is whut’ll happen if’n y’all git both at the same time.  So let’s take a look at whut’re the chances of gittin BOTH the flu an COVID-19 at the same time.

The Flu an COVID-19 Wit Vaccines

We’all gonna have to modify the formula fur this a bit cuz the chances of gittin both the flu and COVID-19 wit a vaccine’s gonna be quite a bit lower than gittin either one by themselfs.  The formula we’all gonna use is:  ( (1 – EffectivenessFlu) * (1 – EffectivenessCOVID-19) )²

Note:  The “1” in the formula means a 100% chance of gittin sick wit the disease.  So 1[100%] – EffectivenessFlu means 100% chance of gittin sick minus how effective (in percent) the flu vaccine is at keepin y’all frum gittin sick.

1. The chance of one vaccinated purson gittin sick’d be: ( (1 – .5) * (1 – .9) )² = (.5 * .1)² = (.05)² = .0025 or a 0.25% chance of gittin sick wit BOTH the flu an COVID-19!  This dun be low nuff that most other vaccinated folk’d probly not git sick wit both.
2. Let’s face the facts, they’s bout no chance that one person wit both’s gonna give both to other folk who dun got both vaccines!

The Flu an COVID-19 Witout Vaccines

1. The chance of one unvaccinated purson gittin sick’d frum nuther be: ( (1 – .1) * (1 – .1) )² = (.9 * .9)² = (.81)² = .66 or a 66% chance of gittin sick wit BOTH the flu an COVID-19!
2. The chance of that purson givin both the flu an COVID-19 to nuther unvaccinated person (2 unvaccinated folk) dun be (66%)³ = .29 or 29%!
3. It’ll take bout 7 “generations” To git down to below a 5% chance of all them folk gittin sick wit both the flu an COVID-19.

Spread of Folks Gittin Both the Flu an COVID-19

1. Wit vaccinated folk y’all’ve “1 generation” befur no more folk’ll be gittin sick frum y’all bein sick.    So that be (((1.5 + 2.5) / 2) * .05) * 1 = (2 * .05) * 1 = bout .1 total vaccinated folk y’all’d git sick with both the flu an COVID-19.  (Remember that any number to the power of 1 is that number.)   So basically, if’n y’all’re vaccinated fur both then they’s bout no chance y’all gonna give both to sumone else who also bin vaccinated fur both.
2. Wit unvaccinated folk y’all’ve bout “7 generations” befur no more folk’ll probly be gittin sick wit both the flu an COVID-19.  So that’ll be (2 * .9)^7 = bout 61 folk one unvaccinated purson’ll git sick!  Even if’n folk be unvaccinated fur both, they’s not gonna spread both very far.

The thang is that even if’n the chances of spreadin both ain’t very gud, y’all still gonna be able to spread either the flu or COVID-19 like ah dun showed in Part A: The Flu and Part B: COVID-19.  So if’n y’all unlucky nuff to git both, y’all’re still more dangerous than folk who dun only got one or the other!

Whut Bout the Mortality Rate Fur Havin Both the Flu an COVID-19?

Ah’ve searched an searched an haven’t found any research that dun talk bout the spected mortality rate if’n y’all were to git both the flu an COVID-19.  So ah’m gonna have to do sum flat out speculatin bout whut that’s gonna look like, but ah figure it’ll be an edjumacated guess that’ll probly not be in the same “ball park”, but’ll be in bout the same “state”.  Maybe as the sayin goes, “Close nuff fur guvmint wurk!”  It’ll give y’all an idea whut to spect, but cud be a gud bit wurse, but probly not a gud bit better.

Anyhoo, har’s mah be guesstimacation.  But to start, ah’d like to splain how why the two together’lll be wurse than jus one or the other.

The Flu

Jus havin a bad case of the flu’ll git y’all purty sick an might even put y’all in the hospital if’n y’all have a “co-morbidity” (sumthin else that might make it so yur body can’t fight off the flu so gud like immune system, heart, kidney, lung, obesity, etc. problems).  If’n them problems be bad nuff, y’all cud end up in the hospital or even die.  Furtunately, wit the flu the chance of dyin’s bout .1%.

COVID-19

Wit COVID-19, they’s bout a 4% chance y’all’ll end up in the hospital, an bout a 2% chance y’all’ll die frum it, across all age groups (lower overall chance if’n y’all’re younger an gittin purty high if’n y’all’re over 65 (>15%)).  An if’n y’all’ve got any of them co-morbidities, yur chances dun git wurse purty quick.

Both the Flu an COVID-19

Thang is, if’n y’all’re havin any kind of problem wit either the flu or COVID-19, then havin BOTH will make thangs git wurse purty quick, specially if’n y’all have sum co-morbidities (they’s basically the same fur both the flu AN COVID-19)!

An it ain’t like y’all can jus add each of them’s mortality rates together ( .1% (Flu) + 2% (COVID-19) = 2.1% ).  It’s gonna be wurse than that cuz each of them viruses take a toll on the body an both together gonna have an effect that’ll probly be more than the sum of they’s mortality rates.

Frankly, ah’d spect them folk that dun git both’ll probably have at least double the mortality rate of jus addin them’s mortality rates together.  So, ah’d spect to see mortality rates fur folk who dun git both to be a gud bit over 4%.

Furtunately, They’s Sum Gud News!

Furtunately, both the flu an COVID-19 dun spread in almost exactly the same way.  Cuz of that, it dun mean that if’n y’all follow the CDC guidelines and “religiously” follow the 4Ws, y’all’ll really cut down not only on the chance of gittin both the flu an COVID-19, but yur chances of gittin either one by itself!

Jus in case y’all’ve furgotten whut the 4Ws are, ah’ll go ahead an list em right below:

1. Wear a mask (properly)
2. Watch yur distance (12 feet indoors, 6 feet outdoors (cuz of amount of fresh air))
3. Wash yur hands (at least 20 seconds, the CDC has gud infurmation on how to wash yur hands properly)
4. Wipe yur surfaces (wit disinfectants, but don’t try drinkin or injectin em as they’s poisonous to people, jus like they be to viruses an bacteria)

The Bottom Line

The University of Washington COVID-19 model shows that if’n a vaccine’re released, it cud save bout 10,000 to 11,000 lives by April 1, 2021.  It also dun shows that if’n bout 80-90% of folk’re to wear a mask (an basically follow the 4Ws), then that’d save bout 66,000 lives by April 1, 2021.  Yep, that dun means that mask wearin’ll be bout 6 times safer’n waitin fur the vaccine… cuz folk like us won’t be able to git it til probly next summer (2021)!

Ah’m not sayin that the vaccine don’t wurk or ain’t safe or nuthin like that… it does seem to wurk an seems to be purty durned safe, too.  What ah’m sayin is that we’all ain’t gonna git access to nuff vaccine doses to make much of a differnce tween now an the middle of next year cuz Pres Trump dun bungled gittin “We, the People” the doses we need when he dun had a chance earlier this year.  Pfizer dun offered him 100,000,000 doses by Feb 2021 an he dun said he weren’t interested!  Cuz of his bunglin, the USofA’s only gonna git bout 40,000,000 doses by the start of next summer (bout June), which’re nuff fur bout 20,000,000 people to git vaccinated.

Them’s the Facts

Ah’m not tryin to pick a fight or nuttin.  Ah’m trying to point out they’s facts as they’re known by them medical an scientifical folk an them federal guvmint agencies that’s sposed to take care of us bout COVID-19 (CDC, HHS, NIH, FDA, etc.).  If’n we take they’s advice, we can save tens of thousands of lives tween now an April 1, 2021.

So let’s do our patriotic duty an do the 4Ws an git vaccinated soon as y’all can, specially if’n y’all be in a “high risk group” (Folk wit Certain Medical Conditions – CDC).

Simply put:

COVID-19 mortality rate = Average Seasonal Flu wit vaccine times 10+!  An Flu + COVID-19 = at least two times higher mortality rate!

So y’all be careful out thar an don’t let them stoopid folk tell y’all “COVID-19 ain’t really that bad”, “Folk ain’t dyin like them lyin media folk’re sayin”, blah, blah.  Keep yurself an yur loved ones safe!

Ranty McRantyson signin off!

PS.  Ah thunk that wit all the depressin stuff bout COVID-19 an the seasonal flu, ah’d add sumthin interestin with this video of a hard workin son-of-a-gun!  Take a gander at this har video: