Hi Ranty Nation!  Ranty McRantyson har agin!

Breakin!

Ah Interrupt This Har Talk wit This Har Brief Message:

Well, it dun bin awhile since ah posted last an ah’m sorry bout that!  But ah kept seein this har talkin point frum them Republican politicians.  An then ah started seein it online frum regular Republican folk an, well, it got mah rantin flowin.  After thunkin and readin an researchin an writin and more thunkin bout this ah decided thisun oughta be nuther multi-part talk.  So ah’m breakin this up into Part A: The Flu (this part), Part B: COVID-19, an Part C: The Flu an COVID-19 Together.

An ah apologize cuz thisun be full of mathimacation, but ah tried to git it as simple as ah cud.  Let me tell ya, them scientifical folk really like they’s complicated mathimacation!

So har’s Part A: The Flu…

Disclaimer:  While ah dun put sum mathimacation in this har talk, it’s jus to show how thangs compare.  Ah dun this cuz the actual mathimacation dun be really complicated an ah jus tried to simplify it to git the idea across by rough comparisons.

Now to Our Regularly Scheduled Talk

Ah bin readin an watchin on the InterTubes an such fur the last couple weeks.  An they’s a buncha folk that dun be sayin a lot of stuff bout COVID-19 that jus ain’t based on whut them scientists an medical experts dun be sayin.  Heck, a lot of whut them folk be sayin jus don’t make no sense, neither.

The newest thang ah dun bin hearin is that COVID-19 ain’t no worse than the “seasonal flu” (ah’ll jus call it the “flu” fur this har talk).  That the only differnce is that thar’s a vaccine for the flu an witout it, the flu’d be as bad as COVID-19.  So don’t worry.

Furst

Ah’m sorry, but wit so many Mericans who dun died cuz of COVID-19 (>275,000 an countin, up over 10,000 in just the 5 days ah dun bin writin this), ah’m worried.  Maybe not so much fur mahself (tho ah probly shud be cuz ah’m gittin older), but for mah friends, family, an fellow Mericans.  So ah’ll do whut needs to be dun so as I can protect em!  (That dun be called “patriotism”!)

Secund

The flu ain’t as contagious (easy to git sick), but it dun mutates (a fancy wurd fur “change”) quicker, bout twice as fast as COVID-19.  Now, on average, a mutation has a 50/50 chance of bein bad fur humans.  Sumtimes them mutations’re gud fur humans cuz they might make us less sick or they might not spread so durned fast.  But since the flu virus changes so quick-like, it can change fur the bad much quicker’n COVID-19 too.

Thurd

They’s 5 primary places, that’re part of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) flu identification system, that know where the flu viruses (mostly) come from. “Disease expurts” meet bout ever 6 months to try to figure out whut 3-4 types’re most likely to make it har to Merica in the next 12 or so months.  Which is why the flu vaccine is usually about 40-60% effective (more on this below). However, sum protection dun be better than none, specially for them folk who’ve got them pre-existing “co-morbidities” (other health problems whut, wit the flu, might make y’all git purty sick or, maybe, even might die).

These har disease expurts dun gotta meet bout a year (or more) before the flu vaccine be released.  That’s cuz it takes that much time to git the right strain (a fancy wurd fur “kind”) an produce the ~140-160 million doses folks git in the US each year. Them 140-160 million doses only git a bit less than 50% of the all the folk in Merica who can git the flu shot.  BUT we dun need 60-80% coverage to git “herd immunity”.  Now, fur y’all’s family, that means that if’n 80% of yur family git’s the flu shot, then them family members who’re “at risk” (older and/or wit heart, kidney, liver, lung, etc. problems) an got the flu shot ain’t as likely to git really sick frum the flu.

All thangs considered, them disease scientists usually do a purty gud job, but there’re definitely years they either don’t guess right or they dun guess right, but that flu version mutates a lot so the vaccine don’t wurk too gud or a new version comes along, usually from a non-human host (fancy wurd fur “animal”).

But the Flu is the Same, But Wit a Vaccine, Right?

To start, ah need to be clear bout whut a vaccine is.  A vaccine is a shot y’all git that causes yur body to git its defenses all fired up to fight the sickness y’all’re gittin vaccinated aginst.  The flu vaccine uses dead or weakened flu viruses frum 3-4 differnt flu strains.  — CDC.gov: Vaccine Effectiveness: How Well Do the Flu Vaccines Work?  Har’s a YouTube video ah found that does a purty gud job splainin how vaccines protect folk:  (Added 2/10/2021)

Thems flu strains break down into two types.  Them scientifical folk dun come up wit real imaginative names like “Type A” an “Type B”.  Really!  Type A an Type B.  They’s musta thunk real hard comin up wit them names!  Fur example, fur the 2020-2021 flu season the flu vaccine covered 4 differnt flu types:

1. Two Type A strains, “H1N1” (also known as the “swine flu”) an “H3N2” an
2. Ttwo Type B strains’re “B/Victoria” an “B/Yamagata”.  — FDA.com: Influenza Vaccine for the 2020-2021 Season

In Part B: COVID-19, ah’ll talk more bout how the flu ain’t the same.  But fur now, we’all’ll focus on the flu an its vaccine.

“Herd Immunity” wit a Vaccine

As ah said in mah talk, “COVID-19 an Kids Goin Back into Schools…“, the flu (wit a vaccine) has averaged bout 35,000 or so deaths ever year.  The problem is, only bout 50% of folks git the flu vaccine ever year.  An that’s a problem cuz we’all need at least 60% (preferably 80%) of folk to git vaccinated to git that mythical “herd immunity” (group protection) goin.  Wit herd immunity, folk who can’t take the vaccine or did git it, but it didn’t wurk 100% fur one reason or nuther, they’all either won’t git sick or won’t git as sick.

Them flu viruses dun mutate a bit frum the time they git picked an the vaccine git made.  AN cuz not everone react fully to the vaccine, the flu vaccine’s usually bout 40-60% effective (meanin it dun wurked) overall among all folk gittin the vaccine (averagin bout 50% effective).  The reason fur this is that the flu vaccine’ll protect us, if’n the flu viruses the vaccine is sposedta protect us frum hasn’t changed much.  The more it changes, the less protection the vaccine’ll provide.  An if’n a total differnt flu virus comes along, the vaccine might not protect us much at all (though it probably will a bit, say, 10-20%).

The Mathimacation

Fur a lot of reasons, the formula fur how much less likely y’all are to git sick wit a vaccine vs not wit a vaccine is calculated wit this har formula:

(1-Effectiveness)², where 1 = 100% likely gittin sick an Effectiveness is how much less likely y’all’re to git sick.

So, if’n we do the mathimacation, wit a 60% effective vaccine, we’all’d have:  (not “exact”, but’ll give y’all an idea of how the flu vaccine vs non-flu vaccine compare)

1-.60 = .40 an .40² = .16 or 16% chance of gittin sick compared to not having a vaccine.

We dun already showed that the flu vaccine averages bout 50% effectiveness:

1. The chance of one vaccinated purson gittin sick’d be: 1-.50 = .50² = .25 or 25% chance of gittin sick.
2. The chance of vaccinated person givin the flu to another vaccinated person (2 vaccinated folk) dun be 25% * 25% or 6.25%.  This dun be low nuff that most other folk’d probly not git sick.
3. Fur 3 vaccinated folk to all git sick wud be 25% * 25% * 25% = 1.5%.

As y’all probably can see, it don’t take too long wit vaccinated folk fur the flu to stop spreadin all together!  That’s how a vaccine driven “herd immunity” wurks.  If’n yur family dun git vaccinated, then y’all can be protectin those of yur family that might not be able to git vaccinated.

Unfurtunately, the more sick folk y’all come into contact wit, even if’n y’all dun got the vaccine shot, the more likely y’all are to git sick.  Furtunately, if’n everone round you also got the vaccine shot, then it’ll probly stop spreading purty quick!

“Herd Immunity” witout a Vaccine

Now let’s take one more example, but wit folk who ain’t bin vaccinated.  An let’s say that unvaccinated folk dun only have a 10% chance of NOT gittin the flu.

1. 1-.10 = .90² = .81 or 81% chance of gittin the flu if they be exposed to sumone who dun be sick.
2. If’n they be two unvaccinated folk, then the chance of both them gittin sick be 81% * 81% = 66%
3. Them unvaccinated folk’d have to go thru 13 folk (.81¹³ = .065 or 6.5%) befur they’d git down to bout that same 6.6% chance of givin the flu to nuther unvaccinated purson!  An 20 folk befur it’d git down to bout 1.5%.

The R0 (R-Not) Number

This dun be more amazin if’n y’all look at it frum the number of folk who’ll git sick cuz of the “R0” (r-not) number.  Real simple-like, R0 means the number of folk a sick person’ll give the flu to.  The R0 number fur the flu is bout 1.5 or each sick person’ll give the flu to 1.5 more folk before they dun git better.  So usin our example above: (wit the formula: (R0 * (1-Effectiveness))^(number of generations)

1. Wit vaccinated folk y’all’ve bout “2 generations” befur no more folk’ll be gittin sick frum y’all bein sick.  So that be (1.5 * .5) * (1.5 * .5) = bout .6 total vaccinated folk y’all’d git sick.
2. Wit unvaccinated folk y’all’ve bout “13 generations” befur no more folk’ll be gittin sick.  So that’ll be (1.5 * .9)¹³ = bout 50 folk one unvaccinated purson’ll git sick.

That’s bout 83 times more unvaccinated folk gittin sick, than vaccinated folk!  Phew!  So it’s bout .6 vaccinated folk vs 50 unvaccinated folk gittin sick.  Ah’d haveta say them vaccinations look purty durned gud!

Well, this dun be the end of the Part A: The Flu talk.  In a couple day’s ah’ll post Part B: COVID-19.  Talk to y’all then!

Ranty McRantyson signin off!

Har are a couple more interestin articles bout flu vaccines:

FDA.gov: Vaccine Development – 101

WebMD.com: CDC: Most Children Dying From Flu Not Vaccinated

UMich.edu: R0: How Scientists Quantify the Intensity of an Outbreak Like Coronavirus and Its Pandemic Potential

NPR.org: Here’s Why You Really Need A Flu Shot